Israel utan strategi – Åratal tills Gaza är uppbyggt
Som även nu IDF medger genomför de ett totalt krig mot allt som kan misstänkas innehålla Hamas krigare och infrastrukturen i Gaza. Eller med andra ord använder man maximal eldstyrka mot alla mål. Detta för att minska de egna förlusterna även om det innebär att fler civila dödas.
”When we suspect that a Palestinian fighter is hiding in a house, we shoot it with a missile and then with two tank shells, and then a bulldozer hits the wall. It causes damage but it prevents the loss of life among soldiers.Likt vad som hände vid den klart markerade FN skola Israel sköt granater mot.
Att sönderskjutna städer är något av det bästa stridsmiljöer som finns för gerillakrigare får mig att undra vad IDF sysslar med? Någon som kommer ihåg platser som Stalingrad eller Monte cassino?
Vad som verkar var alltmer klart är att Israel gått in i Gaza utan någon egentlig strategi men med taktiken att använda maximal militär kraft. I princip handlar det om att skjuta ihjäl och spränga sönder så mycket som möjligt för att på detta sätt förändra det politiska läget.
En taktik som är urbota korkade om även om man inte lägger några moraliska bedömningar i agerandet att utan hänsyn döda och skada civila.
Det är en upprepning av Libanon 2006 eller vredens druvor operationen 1996 för att stoppa Hezbollah. Som Haaretz rapportera om nedan tror inte ens IDF själva att man kan åstadkomma någon egentlig politisk förändring eller ens en väg ut ur Gaza. Målen är så orealistiskt formulerade att man kan undra hur något så verklighetsfrämmande kunde tillåtas ske. Men så är det också längesedan den Israeliska politiska ledningen var tvungen att acceptera en annan verklighet än den de själva drömmer upp.
Även Israels supportrar borde undra över varför judiska soldaters liv ska offras för något den högsta militärledningen mycket väl vet inte går att åstadkomma. Det är Ariel Sharons knölpåks teori som dominerar det Israeliska tänkandet. Vilket i säg är en nedlåtande och rasistisk syn att den enda araber respekterar är styrka och rädsla för att bli dödad.
IDF sources: Conditions not yet optimal for Gaza exit – Haaretz – Israel News
Senior Israel Defense Forces officers expressed doubt Wednesday over whether military efforts alone could bring regime change in the Gaza Strip, and said the army is far from achieving optimal conditions in the Strip to implement an exit strategy.IDF Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi has instructed the army to prepare for action in Gaza since March 2007, shortly after he entered the post. That month, military programs were authorized that were eventually put into action as Operation Cast Lead.
The meetings dealt with the situation Israel seeks to see in the Strip after military operations are complete. An official present said the optimal situation would include several elements: steep reduction in rocket fire; neutralization of terror infrastructure; weakening of Hamas’ position and organization, as well as its removal from power; creation of a ”deterrent balance”; and reducing public support for the militant movement. In addition, Israel should not be viewed as being responsible for the Palestinian population, but the role should go to a central Palestinian establishment created in Gaza, led by moderate, pragmatic officials.
The officials said the IDF understands ”there is a discrepancy between our interests and the ability to implement these through the use of force alone.”
Physically gaining control of the entire Strip or large portions of it, they said, will lead to Israel’s taking responsibility for the area’s civilian population, and Israel’s international legitimacy would weaken.
Sedan har folk börjat granska argumentet att vapenvilan inte höll som orsak till invasionen. Som nedanstående genomgång från Huffington Post. Notera att siffrorna kommer från Israels eget konsulat.
Har palestinierna rätt till självförsvar om israel dödar palestinier?
Second, and just as important, what happened to end this striking period of peace? On November 4th, Israel killed a Palestinian, an event that was followed by a volley of mortars fired from Gaza. Immediately after that, an Israeli air strike killed six more Palestinians. Then a massive barrage of rockets was unleashed, leading to the end of the ceasefire.
Figure 1. Number of Palestinian rockets fired in each month of 2008 (adapted from The Israeli consulate in NYC [pdf])
Thus the latest ceasefire ended when Israel first killed Palestinians, and Palestinians then fired rockets into Israel. However, before attempting to glean lessons from this event, we need to know if this case is atypical, or if it reflects a systematic pattern.
We decided to tally the data to find out. We analyzed the entire timeline of killings of Palestinians by Israelis, and killings of Israelis by Palestinians, in the Second Intifada, based on the data from the widely-respected Israeli Human Rights group B’Tselem (including all the data from September 2000 to October 2008).
We defined ”conflict pauses” as periods of one or more days when no one is killed on either side, and we asked which side kills first after conflict pauses of different durations. As shown in Figure 2, this analysis shows that it is overwhelmingly Israel that kills first after a pause in the conflict: 79% of all conflict pauses were interrupted when Israel killed a Palestinian, while only 8% were interrupted by Palestinian attacks (the remaining 13% were interrupted by both sides on the same day). In addition, we found that this pattern — in which Israel is more likely than Palestine to kill first after a conflict pause — becomes more pronounced for longer conflict pauses. Indeed, of the 25 periods of nonviolence lasting longer than a week, Israel unilaterally interrupted 24, or 96%, and it unilaterally interrupted 100% of the 14 periods of nonviolence lasting longer than 9 days.
Figure 2. For conflict pauses of different durations (i.e., periods of time when no one is killed on either side), we show here the percentage of times from the Second Intifada in which Israelis ended the period of nonviolence by killing one or more Palestinians (black), the percentage of times that Palestinians ended the period of nonviolence by killing Israelis (grey), and the percentage of times that both sides killed on the same day (white). Virtually all periods of nonviolence lasting more than a week were ended when the Israelis killed Palestinians first. We include here the data from all pause durations that actually occurred.
En bra fråga är. När detta krig är slut vad gör världssamfundet med kanske 1 miljon flyktingar från de flyktingläger som nu är obeboeliga? Även där har IDF insett att det kommer att ta år att återuppbygga det som var ett flykting läger. Så mycket är ‘terror infrastrukturen’ raserad. Det som ett resultat av den IDFs taktik att använda maximal eldstyrka mot byggnader. För att minimera Israels förluster. Utan att för den skull påverka Hamas stridsmöjligheter bland raserade hus. Och varför ska Hamas gå med på en vapenvila i en situation där Israel sitter i en rävsax. Allt Hamas folk behöver göra är att hålla sig vid liv och fortsätta strida så vinner de den politiska och moraliska striden. Medan Israel förlorar politiskt och militärt.
Jag undrar Gaza invasionen kommer att bli den tipping point som permanent vände Israels positionen och roll i mellanöstern till något drastiskt sämre.
I Sverige verkar i alla fall Israel försvararna hamnat i mindre panik av döma av vissa blogginslägg som här, här eller här. Varför ska det vara så svårt med kritiska tänkande och en debatt i Sverige som man klarar av bättre till och med i Israel. Även den Israel försvarare som struntat fullständigt i vad som snabbt närmar sig tusen döda civila borde begripa Israel inte vinner på vad de nu gör.
IDF officer: ‘It will take many years to restore’ bomb-wracked Gaza – Haaretz – Israel News
The strategy of the Israel Defense Forces is to utilize tremendous firepower in order to protect the ground forces during the fighting in built-up areas, a senior officer explained to journalists yesterday.Speaking to the media through a secure telephone, the officer stressed that ”from our point of view, being careful means being aggressive.”
The officer acknowledged that the ground offensive is causing a great deal of damage, not only to Hamas, but also against civilian infrastructure. ”It will take many years in order to restore this area to what it was before,” he said.
”When we suspect that a Palestinian fighter is hiding in a house, we shoot it with a missile and then with two tank shells, and then a bulldozer hits the wall. It causes damage but it prevents the loss of life among soldiers.”The officer said that his forces were expected to complete the clearing of the area they were assigned by today.
He emphasized that his forces ”entered the Gaza Strip like in a war and not a routine security operation. Hamas has avoided confronting us directly because of the firepower that was used when we went in. It had an initial shock effect and broke down orderly resistance. We do not see battalion- or company-size units fighting against us, but much smaller pockets of resistance.”
The soldiers are now busy with searching tunnels and homes. In many homes, usually those belonging to active Hamas members, escape tunnels were uncovered, as well as large quantities of military equipment. In addition to small arms, the soldiers found anti-tank missiles, large explosive devices and even dirt bikes, which were most likely intended for use in attempts to abduct IDF soldiers.
The same senior officer said that in the areas where his troops were operating, the civilians are fleeing.
”We saw homes where the meals were left uneaten. We see columns of women and children with white flags, and of course we let them pass toward Gaza City. On the other hand, every two hours there are intelligence warnings about a female suicide bomber in the area, so most of the soldiers also regard a convoy of civilians as a real threat.”
From the field, officers are reporting that Hamas is preparing for a long-term struggle. In one area, soldiers spent the night in a building only to find the next day that an explosive device had been laid in the structure next door, designed to be set off by the troops tripping a wire.
Bloggat:
Steve Lando, guero, Adrian Kaba, I hell-mans värld, Anders Wallner, Bloggen Bent, Svensson, jj.n, Bloggarna.se och Motpol, Rabbin, biskop och imam i gemensamt uttalande om Gaza (Svensson), Mitt under slakten framträder syftet med den
Mer i media:
Hamas avfärdar plan för vapenvila, Norska hjälteläkarna krigsvittnen när de räddar liv i Gaza, Bomberna faller igen, Nederlag för Frankrikes och Egyptens gemensamma förslag, DN:s Michael Winiarski:, Israelisk splittring om fortsatt offensiv, Kritiken växer mot att journalister vägras insyn i Gaza,
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