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religion » Archives » “Ticking Clocks and ‘Accidental’ War,” BY Alastair Crooke

The view from those most likely

to be affected by an “accidental” war, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas, all share the conclusion both that war is imminent and that any

one of a number of “ticking clocks” may be “engineered” as a provocation that would by-pass the Pentagon chiefs of staff arguments

against expanded conflict and trigger war. All of these actors have been preparing flat-out for the coming conflict.

/>They see the circumstances of the Middle East as one of hair-trigger instability and escalating tensions. Equally significantly,

there is a heightened inter-linkage between events that suggests that, as in 1912-14 in Europe, some unexpected and relatively

insignificant event – a Sarajevo moment – could ignite currents and dynamics over which major states and movements would have little

influence.

Iran (from where I have just returned) as well as leaders such as Hassan Nasrallah and Khaled Mesha’al see the signs of

preparations for conflict taking place in Israel. These are the signs they see: Israel conducting low level overflights in Lebanon to

create sonic booms; Israel, whose prime minister had been volubly warning of the risks of some misunderstanding leading to war between

Israel and Syria, then launching an aerial incursion into Syria. And all of this as the international community remained

silent.

The Syrians saw on their radars the four fighters that penetrated into Northern Syria from the

Mediterranean; but they also saw the much larger numbers of Israeli aircraft that were flying in a holding position close to Cyprus. The

Syrians were not about to disclose their anti-aircraft missile capacities to Israel; and the intruders dropped the munitions and their

long-range fuel tanks without pressing any attack, but returned to join the larger group still flying a holding pattern off Cyprus

before all returned to Israel as a single formation.

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